Core Concept: Predicting Belief Inflection Points

Belief as a Dynamic System State

In Preda, belief is modeled as a measurable, evolving state rather than a latent or subjective variable. This state is derived from multiple independent sources, each reflecting a different dimension of collective understanding. Belief is not treated as truth, but as an aggregation of expressed expectations.

A belief inflection point is defined as a structural change in this state, such as:

• A sustained sentiment polarity shift

• A probability threshold crossing

• A convergence or divergence among forecasting models

• A rapid acceleration or deceleration in narrative momentum

These inflection points represent moments where shared expectations reorganize.

Time-Shifted Resolution

Time-Shifted Prediction Markets allow participants to forecast when such inflection points will occur. Instead of taking positions on outcomes, participants allocate belief across time intervals, effectively constructing a probability distribution over the timing of consensus change.

Resolution occurs when the predefined belief condition is met and validated by the system’s oracle framework. The focus is not on the correctness of an outcome, but on the accuracy of timing relative to belief dynamics.

This approach introduces time as a first-class dimension of prediction, enabling markets to express uncertainty not only about what people will believe, but when they will believe it.