Preda Roadmap

Preda Roadmap

Phase 1 — Belief as a Primitive

Objective: Establish belief dynamics as a first-class on-chain object.

This phase focuses on building the foundational infrastructure required to observe and measure collective belief over time.

Key Deliverables

• Belief State Index (BSI) core framework

• Initial sentiment and probability oracle integrations

• Time-bucketed market engine for belief-timing predictions

• Deterministic market specification and resolution rules

• Solana-based deployment optimized for low-latency belief updates

Outcome A functioning system where markets can resolve on clearly defined belief inflection points rather than event outcomes.

Phase 2 — Timing, Volatility, and Uncertainty

Objective: Encode uncertainty about when belief changes occur.

This phase expands market mechanics to reflect the probabilistic and noisy nature of belief transitions.

Key Deliverables

• Volatility-adjusted payout curves

• Persistence and threshold validation logic

• Expanded oracle inputs (news narratives, forecast aggregators)

• Continuous belief monitoring and inflection detection

• Historical belief state replay for post-analysis

Outcome Markets that express not only belief direction, but belief timing uncertainty with smoother, more expressive resolution.

Phase 3 — Reflexivity and Belief Visualization

Objective: Make belief dynamics observable and interpretable.

This phase introduces analytical tooling that reveals how beliefs, markets, and information interact over time.

Key Deliverables

• Reflexivity visualization layer (belief → price → belief)

• Market-implied belief timing distributions

• Cross-market belief correlation analysis

• Narrative velocity and sentiment acceleration metrics

• Research-oriented dashboards for belief dynamics

Outcome A system that functions as both a market and an observatory for expectation formation.

Phase 4 — Adaptive Belief Markets

Objective: Extend Preda into a general-purpose belief dynamics research infrastructure.

This phase focuses on modularity, experimentation, and cross-domain expansion.

Key Deliverables

• Modular oracle plug-in framework

• Cross-domain Belief State Indices

• Advanced manipulation detection and resilience mechanisms

• Experimental market formats for belief divergence and convergence

• Support for AI-native belief signals and model consensus tracking

Outcome Preda evolves from a single prediction system into a flexible protocol for studying how collective belief changes across social, economic, and algorithmic systems.

Roadmap Philosophy

Preda’s roadmap is intentionally structured around capability layers, not deadlines. Each phase deepens the system’s ability to measure, price, and analyze belief transitions—reinforcing the core narrative:

“Predict not the event — predict when consensus will flip.”