Market Lifecycle

The lifecycle of a Time-Shifted Prediction Market in Preda is designed to be deterministic, auditable, and resilient to ambiguity. Each stage explicitly defines how belief conditions are measured, monitored, and resolved over time.

1. Market Specification and Definition

A market begins with the formal definition of a belief condition rather than an outcome. This specification includes:

• The belief signal(s) to be measured (sentiment, probability, consensus, velocity)

• The threshold or inflection criteria

• The minimum persistence window (to avoid transient noise)

• The applicable timeframe and resolution granularity

This stage ensures that belief transitions are operationally defined before trading begins.

2. Oracle Configuration and Calibration

Once the belief condition is defined, relevant oracles are selected and weighted. Calibration parameters may include:

• Signal smoothing intervals

• Time decay functions

• Cross-source normalization rules

• Outlier handling thresholds

Oracle configurations are fixed at market creation to prevent post-hoc manipulation.

3. Trading and Time-Based Positioning

Participants allocate positions across discrete time buckets or continuous curves representing when they expect the belief condition to be met. Pricing emerges from collective expectations regarding belief timing rather than event probability.

This phase produces a market-implied distribution over time, reflecting uncertainty, clustering, and divergence of belief.

4. Continuous Belief Monitoring

During the market’s active period, belief signals are continuously ingested and aggregated into the Belief State Index. The system monitors:

• Directional trends

• Rate of change

• Persistence of threshold crossings

This monitoring is passive and does not influence the belief signals themselves.

5. Inflection Detection and Validation

When a belief condition is met, the system validates:

• Threshold crossing

• Duration of persistence

• Consistency across oracle inputs

Only validated inflection points trigger resolution.

6. Volatility-Aware Settlement

Settlement applies predefined payout curves that account for timing precision and belief volatility. This allows markets to resolve smoothly rather than collapsing into binary outcomes.