Example Market Structures

Time-Shifted Prediction Markets support a range of belief-focused market designs:

Sentiment Transition Markets

These markets resolve when aggregated sentiment crosses a sustained threshold. For example:

• Transition from neutral to bullish sentiment dominance

• Reversal from positive to negative narrative framing

Probability Threshold Markets

These markets track when aggregated probabilistic forecasts exceed or fall below defined levels, such as:

• When consensus probability surpasses 60%

• When downside risk estimates drop below a critical threshold

Model Consensus Markets

These markets resolve based on agreement metrics across AI or forecasting models:

• When a majority of models converge within a narrow probability band

• When divergence among models exceeds a defined tolerance

Narrative Velocity Markets

These markets focus on the speed of belief change:

• When topic attention accelerates beyond historical baselines

• When narrative decay stabilizes after peak intensity

Each market type encodes belief conditions explicitly, allowing precise, auditable resolution based on observable signals.